David Perell/Tren Griffin
Best thing human can do for another person is to help them learn more
Beyond 7 min most ppl stop reading (~1000 words)
Most ppl only read what others are reading (power law)
Most books sell 2500 copies total
You have to have lots of ego and self confidence to write and publish online
Not interesting unless you put yourself out there
Writing = learn more than you teach others
You have zero info about the future. Multiple futures are possible
Howard marks
The world at a big picture level is analog. Must prepare yourself for different probabilities
McKinsey famous failed study: no one will use mobile if they could use landlines
There are many possible futures, only of which occurs
When things are nonlinear things can change radically/quickly
Good judgment comes from experience, experience comes from bad judgement
Think of the world as a probabilistic experience; all pro Alistair systems, you must focus on process over outcomes
Sound process eventually leads to wins
For the rare moments when you do have a statistical advantage bet the house go big. The hard part is being patient enough until you do have that advantage
Be patient, but aggressive when it’s time (in poker and life)
Seeing what’s bad helps you to see what’s good
Can’t be good in business without being a good capital allocator. You must learn to invest well
If you’re paying attention you can acquire judgement vicariously in an expedited fashion (!!!!)
Life is a mix of good luck and bad luck. Be thankful for the good luck you have. Acquire as much skill as you can bc that’s all you can control
Being around smart ppl makes you smarter (and vice versa); same with ambition
How do we make deep knowledge valuable to a small community of people as discoverable a accessible and viral as viral content for the masses? 36’********
How to make the positive stuff more available
Richard zeckhouser Harvard
How do we create a market based system for specific bodies of knowledge ***********
Helping the ordinary person know more about important things is a scheduling problem
One of most important things to know = what’s unknown; what’s unknowable
Somethings aren’t predictable. Have some humility
“Electrons don’t have feelings” -Murray Gelmand
Most exciting thing about space is that working on spacecraft bring together all different scientific disciplines and everyone can learn from each other and learn what they don’t know
There are many futures; only one future happens
In the modern world innovation is more distributed progress happening globally it’s not like Edison or the right brothers making one huge breakthrough on their own
Ex: Kubernetes (it’s hard for most ppl to grasp the value of that)
!!!innovation is happening faster than ever but it’s distributed; availability bias prevents us from seeing it
Software can be resumed; its combinatorial; therefore innovations today are combinatorial
***Distribution is way harder than creating a good product***
Distribution constraint has changed reduced (fo B2B; less focus on IT buyer) — way more competitors, you always have to innovate
Uninstalling Oracle was like a root canal reversed; now you can spin up databases easily and cheaply
**Theres been a huge change in the distribution paradigm**
VCs most focus on the attractiveness of the market and the people
Most accelerated way to learn lessons = reading biographies, talking to people, going to parties
I want to live my life so I can maximize the number of great first-party stories I can tell. That’s how ppl learn/what’s interesting
Heaven = the ppl who love you
In order to be loved, you must be lovable
Being lovable is an earned thing. Were you giving? Did you teach/help other ppl learn more? All these things define a life well lived. “If you’re not trying to achieve that then it’s not my game”
Stealing ideas/software is not rivalrous
Tren’s mother “makes you feel like you’re the only person in the world”
Pick out specific attributes of ppl you admire. Find these qualities and say “I want to be like that. I need to work on that”
You’re always a student
Chips/software/PCs = software in a box
Hardware doesn’t tend to last. Software does
Demand side economies of scale
Software is more of an art
The human mind is not equipped to deal with non-linearity
When the non-linear happens in society, it’s fundamentallydisoriteinf
Human society is stunned rn, so ppl claim to single purpose answers to get some safety and predictability
It’s the way things are now. Get prepared for a faster more nonlinear world cause it’s never gonna change. It may accelerate. Non-linearity is always surprising no matter how prepared you are for it
When you have a probabilistic prices you must have a superior process
Popcorn names:
Michael Mobeson
Paradox of skill - As people get more and more skilled their luck increases
Munger
You must be patient and aggressive at the same time be patient be patient be patient and then when something arrives in your favor go forward with everything you’ve got
Investing is like baseball but there’s unlimited pitches and you must wait for the biggest hanging curveballs before you swing
Value investing = investing in things at less than they’re worth
We all have friends from high school are going up to having involved at all Sam everything you want to not be stuck on the same things all the time and say what’s next what’s next what’s next
Optionalify Is everywhere if you know where to look option Alibey is outside with no downside
What’s better than being around people with great ideas and interesting people and making each other better and learning
Book writing is 30s and 40s activity when you’re 22 might not be the best time to start your book but you can certainly start taking notes and thinking about what you might want to write one day
Cost matters hypothesis: lower costs overtime compound like crazy Jon Vogel
I don’t know anyone who’s done more for the every day investor than John Bogle
Sean Malone: table was the first sass company where it wasn’t about this quarter’s earnings prayers about creating a cash flow a future earnings big upfront customer acquisition cost followed by consistent earnings overtime
ASP (application service providers )
You must look at future cash flow and tear
Bill Gurley - all markets aren’t created equal (excellent blog post)
New markets - discoverability is key
Bill gurley- Zillow, others
The themes from this episode: you can learn from everybody, think of the role in terms of probabilities; wait for your pitch, but when that fastball is down the plate swing for the fences